“When you believe in things that you don’t understand,
Then you suffer,
Superstition ain’t the way”
From ”Superstition” by Stevie Wonder
Yesterday my family got together at my parents’ house to eat lunch and hang out. After eating we all sat in the living room to watch the NFC championship game between the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles. Everyone in the family was rooting for the Cardinals because Kurt Warner, their quarterback, lives in our hometown Saint Louis and previously played for the Saint Louis Rams who he led to a Super Bowl victory in 1999.
During the first half of the game the Cardinals performed very well on both sides of the ball. The beginning of the second half they didn’t perform as well and the Eagles’ game was starting to pick up. To what did my family attribute this? Was it due to the 24-6 score at half time that mentally caused the Cardinals to slow down and the Eagles to perform harder? Did the Cardinals coach tell the team in their locker room to concentrate on running the clock down while the Eagles coach reminded his athletes they were competing for a chance to play in their sport’s biggest game? Nope.
During the first half of the game I was sitting in a chair on the right of my parents’ couch. At halftime I used the bathroom and sat on the left side of the couch. When the Cardinals started under performing my family decided my position in the room, which is in the Saint Louis area, had to be causing an effect on the Cardinals, a football team in Arizona. My family members each begged me to switch back to my original seat and I refused because I was comfortable and I just wanted to watch the game without being forced to participate in some superstition. My sister and sister-in-law each even got mad and said I was going to be the cause of the Cardinals’ impending loss. I told them I would maintain my position until anyone could give a plausible way I could possibly affect the game. From that point on, each time the Kurt Warner threw an incomplete pass or got sacked, I got a sneering look from someone and a plea to move which I refused. So was my family right? Did my position in the living room cause the Cardinals to lose? The final score: Cardinals – 32 Eagles – 25
The error in logic made by my family is called an a post hoc ergo propter hoc, or “after this therefore because of this”, fallacy. They saw two events that loosely correlated to each other and created a causal relationship of one onto the other. Sometimes this fallacy can be harmless, like someone believing if they can throw a wadded piece of paper into a trashcan across the room they’ll get a promotion at work. Other times this fallacy can cause little harm, like forcing an innocent man to move when he just wants to watch some freaking football!!!!! Other times still this fallacy can be extremely harmful, like when ancient civilizations believed human sacrifice would lead to a bountiful harvest.
No matter the outcome of fallacious thinking, it’s always good to be familiar with the different forms of logical fallacies. Below I’ve listed some online resources to help better understand them:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies
http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/
http://www.logicalfallacies.info/
http://www.theskepticsguide.org/logicalfallacies.asp
http://www.theness.com/articles.asp?id=38